A Visa Placed on the Scales
On February 27, 2026, the way the H-1B visa lottery works changed fundamentally. The long-standing random drawing — the so-called "lottery" system — has been replaced with a new selection scheme that weights entries by wage level. The basic structure, in which hundreds of thousands of people compete for 85,000 H-1B visas each year, has not changed, but the principle that decides who gets more chances has. Even though everyone still puts their name into the same drawing, a person offered a higher wage now has more copies of their name in the pool.
Less than a week later, the initial registration period for Fiscal Year 2027 (FY2027) H-1B cases opens, running from March 4 through March 19. This is the first real-world stage on which the new rule is applied. Because this cycle serves as the first test of the weighted lottery system, its outcome could shape the direction of H-1B policy discussions going forward. For Korean international students, OPT workers, and the companies seeking to employ them, this change is not an abstract policy debate — it is a reality that begins next week. This column lays out concretely what has changed and what preparation is needed.
From Random Chance to Weighted Odds: The Rules of the Game Change
The final rule published by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the Federal Register on December 29, 2025 redesigned the basic principle behind the H-1B lottery. Under the previous system, every registrant entered the drawing with an equal chance. Whether a highly paid engineer at a large corporation or a new hire just brought on by a small business, each was a single, equal name tag in the drawing pool. The new rule dismantles that equality. How many times a registrant's entry goes into the drawing now depends on the prevailing wage level, as measured under the Department of Labor's (DOL) Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS).
Specifically, a registration in which the employer offers a salary corresponding to prevailing wage Level IV goes into the lottery pool four times. Level III goes in three times, Level II two times, and the lowest, Level I, only once. It is the same drawing, but a registrant offered a higher wage now holds more entry tickets. The annual H-1B cap remains the same as before: 65,000 for the regular cap plus an additional 20,000 for holders of a U.S. master's degree or higher, for a total of 85,000. What has changed is who is more likely to receive one of those 85,000 slots.
The four prevailing wage levels are calculated separately for each occupation and each geographic area. Level I corresponds to roughly the 17th percentile of the wage distribution for that occupation, Level II to the 34th percentile, Level III to the 50th percentile (the median), and Level IV to the 67th percentile. Even for the same software engineer occupation, the prevailing wage differs between New York and Texas, and even within the same city, the level thresholds differ by occupation.
What the Numbers Say About the New Lottery
To understand the real-world impact of the new rule, it helps to look at the numbers. An analysis published in February 2026 by the Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School shows the magnitude of the change clearly. Under the previous random lottery, a Level I registrant's selection probability was about 27.1%. Under the new weighted system, that probability plunges to about 2.5% — a drop to roughly one-tenth of the previous level. For early-career workers, this is a substantial blow, both in the numbers and in how it will be felt.
DHS's own estimates point in the same direction. The agency projected a selection probability of about 61% for Level IV registrants, about 46% for Level III, about 31% for Level II, and about 15% for Level I. The numerical gap between the Wharton model and the DHS estimate stems from differing assumptions — namely, the total registration volume and the distribution across wage levels — but the core message is the same: the lower the wage level, the more sharply the selection probability falls.
Looking at H-1B application data from FY2020 through FY2024, about 28% of all applications were concentrated at Level I and 55% at Level II. Level III accounted for only 12%, and Level IV for just 5%. In other words, 83% of applicants were clustered at Levels I and II. Under the new rule, this majority's selection probability drops sharply. According to the Wharton analysis, the share of Level I registrants among those selected is projected to fall from 27% to 14%, while the share of Level IV registrants is projected to rise from 15.5% to about 26%. The outward form of the lottery stays the same, but this is a structural shift that tilts the distribution of outcomes toward higher wages.
One point worth noting is that if the actual offered wage is higher than the prevailing wage for that occupation and area, it can be credited at a higher level for purposes of calculating the lottery weight. For example, even for an occupation classified as Level II on the Labor Condition Application (LCA), if the employer's actual offered annual salary meets or exceeds the Level III prevailing wage for the same occupation and area, the registration receives the Level III weight (three entries) in the lottery. This provision leaves room for an employer's wage strategy to raise the selection probability. That said, it should be kept in mind that the employer must genuinely intend and be able to pay that wage level, and misrepresenting the wage offered is an immigration law violation that can carry serious consequences.
What This Means for Korean Applicants
A large share of Korean H-1B applicants falls directly within the reach of this change. Many Korean applicants follow the path of graduating from a U.S. university, going through OPT (Optional Practical Training), and then transitioning to H-1B status. The salary at a first job right after graduation generally falls at prevailing wage Level I or II. Even in professional occupations such as software engineer, accountant, or business analyst, Level I or II wages are typical at the early-career stage. For these applicants, the new lottery rule means a selection probability drop that will be felt directly. The picture changes once someone builds up enough experience to reach Level III or IV wages, but the H-1B lottery is a visa needed at the early-career stage, and realistically, it is not easy to have already reached a higher wage level by that point.
The $100,000 H-1B fee introduced by presidential proclamation in September 2025 is another variable that cannot be overlooked. This fee applies to certain new petitions for people entering the country from abroad on an H-1B visa, and three federal lawsuits are currently underway: California v. Noem, brought jointly by 20 states; Global Nurse Force v. Trump; and an appeal being heard on an expedited basis at the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. As of February 2026, no court has issued an injunction halting this fee. Meanwhile, calls for an exemption are growing louder, particularly from the medical community. A bipartisan letter co-signed by 100 members of the federal House and Senate has been delivered to DHS, and the American Medical Association (AMA), along with 40 other national medical organizations, supports an exemption for healthcare employers. As of fiscal year 2024, about 17,000 H-1B petitions were approved in the healthcare field. Separate reporting indicates that a substantial share of International Medical Graduate (IMG) physicians work in areas facing healthcare workforce shortages.
From the employer's perspective, the new rule demands a strategic recalculation. Raising the salary offered to an applicant to reach a higher wage level increases the selection probability, but it also increases the employer's labor cost burden accordingly. This is especially difficult for small and mid-sized businesses or startups, which struggle to match the wage levels offered by large corporations. As a result, this rule has the potential to deepen a structure that favors well-capitalized large corporations and disadvantages small and mid-sized employers. Even when a Korean accounting firm in Flushing or Fort Lee wants to hire a Korean-speaking accountant on H-1B status, it already struggles to compete with the wages offered by large accounting firms — and now it also carries the added disadvantage of a lower lottery weight, a double disadvantage.
Practical Checkpoints Before Registration Opens
With only days remaining until registration opens on March 4, the first task is to distinguish between what can be prepared and what cannot. You cannot change the weighting itself, but you can prevent mistakes or omissions in the registration process.
The first thing to check is which prevailing wage level applies to you. Finding out in advance which level the salary offered by your employer falls into is basic preparation. As discussed above, if the actual offered wage reaches the prevailing wage of a higher level, the registration can receive a higher weight in the lottery, so having a candid conversation with your employer about the wage level carries real strategic value.
For holders of a master's degree or higher, the rule remains the same as before: those not selected in the regular 65,000 lottery get a second chance in the additional 20,000 master's cap.
The registration period runs from noon Eastern Time on March 4 to noon Eastern Time on March 19, and selection notices are expected to be issued through USCIS online accounts by March 31. Only the employer or its representative may register; the applicant cannot register directly. For a new registration, the employer bears a $215 registration fee per registration.
Closing
The implementation of the weighted lottery has changed the nature of the competition surrounding the H-1B visa. The "realm of luck" that was random selection has shifted into a "realm of market valuation" driven by wage level. What is certain is that the door has narrowed for the majority of applicants at Level I or II wages. But a narrower door does not mean a closed one. Even the DHS estimate puts the Level I registrant's selection probability at about 15%, and that is not 0%. It is realistic to think in advance about alternatives to prepare for the possibility of not being selected. Rather than staking everything on a single H-1B attempt, an approach that pursues multiple paths in parallel is actually safer. It makes sense to widen your view to include making the most of the OPT period, checking whether the 24-month STEM OPT extension is available for STEM majors, exploring other employment-based visa paths such as the O-1 or L-1 visa, and, over the longer term, permanent residency categories that do not require employer sponsorship, such as the EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW).
Registration opens on March 4 — it is right around the corner. Reaching out to your employer promptly, confirming your prevailing wage level, and checking that the registration fee and documentation are ready are the most concrete steps you can take right now. Criticism that the new rule places excessive weight on the single criterion of wage coexists with the view that it is an unavoidable measure needed for the health of the U.S. labor market. Whichever side is right, now that the rule is in effect, the first priority is positioning yourself as well as possible within it. Uncertainty will likely accompany the system until it settles in, but even amid that uncertainty, it is possible to raise the intensity of your preparation. In the end, the weight of the visa placed on the scales is decided together by the applicant's own qualifications and the employer's judgment.
Disclaimer: This column is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice for any specific case. For matters concerning your individual immigration situation, please consult an immigration attorney.
Law Office of Jin D. Cho, P.C.
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