An employment-based green card takes more than two years, and the current administration's term ends on January 20, 2029.

A common thing heard in consultations these days is, "We will watch a little longer before starting." Employees say it, and so do business owners who want to keep their workers. With good news on the immigration side hard to come by these days, that feeling is understandable. But laying out a calendar and counting the dates changes the picture. An employment-based green card generally takes more than two years even if started now, and the current administration's term ends around that time. Now is, if anything, the time to start.

Even if you start now, the final review comes only two years later

"According to what the Department of Labor posted as of September 22, 2026, PERM labor certification (the process in which the Department of Labor confirms that a foreign worker may be hired for this position) is reviewing applications filed in December 2025, and the average processing time in August 2026 was 336 days."

Employment-based green cards are divided into tracks based on education and experience requirements, and these are called preference categories. This article is based on the most common path, going through an employer, that is, the second preference (EB-2) and third preference (EB-3), which go through PERM labor certification. A path where a person applies on his or her own abilities alone has no labor certification and may be faster.

First, the Department of Labor sets the prevailing wage, meaning how much must be paid for that position. The Department of Labor reported that, as of the end of August 2026, it was processing requests received in May of that year, so this step takes about four months. Next, the employer first tries to find a worker within the United States. After a 30-day state job order posting and newspaper ads, it must still wait another 30 days, so this takes at least a little over two months. Only then can the labor certification application be filed. Review takes an average of 336 days, or about eleven months, and longer if the Department of Labor decides to take a closer look at the file.

These three steps alone add up to roughly a year and a half. If you start in October 2026, labor certification comes around spring 2028. Steps remain even after that. The employer must file a petition (Form I-140) with USCIS stating that it will employ this person, and because the number of green cards issued each year is fixed, the person must wait for his or her turn. Only when that turn comes is a decision made at the last gate, the green card review. Once started, this time does not shrink by hurrying. The only thing that can be moved up is the day you start.

Now look at the calendar. The new president takes office on January 20, 2029, a date set by the Constitution that does not change. The current president has already been elected twice and cannot be elected again. From October 1, 2026 to that day is a little under two years and four months. Two of the steps, the Department of Labor's labor certification and the USCIS petition, are reviewed under the current administration. But the very last step, the green card review, is likely to come around January 20, 2029 or later for someone who starts now.

The line forms in the order filings are made

"Under the Visa Bulletin, the green card order chart the Department of State publishes each month, the October 2026 Final Action Dates for all other countries are May 15, 2024 for the third preference and January 1, 2025 for the second preference."

The Visa Bulletin is a chart showing, for that month, up to what date people in line have reached their turn. A Final Action Date means that the turn has come for people who got in line before that date, and "all other countries" means every country other than those, such as China and India, that have their own longer lines. The date that sets your place in line is called the priority date, and it is the day the labor certification application was filed with the Department of Labor. The Department of State also states that it issues green cards in the order in which filings were received.

Going by those dates, as of October 2026 the turn has come for people who got in line about two years and five months earlier in the third preference, and about one year and nine months earlier in the second preference. The second preference had no wait through September, and a line formed in October. Because the Visa Bulletin moves both forward and backward like this, it cannot be said flatly how many months it will take. In the second preference, if the line disappears again, the final review could come sooner. On the other hand, jobs that require no education or experience have a much longer line, but either way, a person who files later stands that much further back.

While you are watching and waiting, you are not standing in line. If you watch for a year and start after policies ease, at the current pace you will have to spend another year and a half from that point before labor certification comes. The year let slip by cannot be recovered anywhere, and someone who had the same worry on the same day but started first will by then already be a year ahead.

There is no guarantee that the next administration will be generous on immigration. That cannot be known. Starting costs money, and the employer has to stay with the process to the end. Still, if nothing is gained by waiting, starting is the right choice.

The same goes for business owners. The labor certification application is a document the employer files, and the date that sets the place in line is also the day the employer files it. If there is an employee you truly need, the longer you put it off until the climate improves, the further that employee's place is pushed back. Putting that employee in line first is something that can be done even now.

Policies have changed every time the administration changed

"The public charge rule, which looks at whether a green card applicant is likely to live depending on government help, was finalized as a strict rule in 2019 and rescinded in 2021, then a relaxed rule came out in 2022, and on September 18, 2026 it became strict again. It changed four times in seven years."

The rule that sets how long international students can stay in the United States is similar. It was proposed in 2020, withdrawn in 2021, and finalized in July 2026. But on September 14, 2026, one day before it was to take effect, a federal court postponed it, so the government deciding something does not mean it is set in stone.

Rules and guidance like these can be changed by the president, and the next president can change them too. Immigration law made by Congress is a different matter. The framework of issuing at least 140,000 employment-based green cards a year remains in place today, and this number changes only if Congress amends the law.

So it is hard to assume that review as strict as today's will simply continue after 2029. This is said on the basis of the record of the past seven years. When policy softens or the administration changes, the people who benefit from that change right away are those already standing near the front of the line.

However the elections turn out, January 20, 2029 will come

"According to the records of the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, of the 23 midterm elections (congressional elections held midway through a president's term) from 1934 to 2022, the president's party gained House seats in 3 and lost seats in 20."

The next midterm elections are on November 3, 2026. One thing should be made clear. The midterm elections choose Congress. The person who directs USCIS and the Department of State is the president, so however the elections turn out, current policy will not change right away, but the trend is worth watching.

In 2018, during the current president's first term, the president's party (the ruling party) also lost 41 seats in the House of Representatives, one chamber of Congress. Many forecasts say this election, too, will be unfavorable to the ruling party. In major polls from July to mid-September 2026, those approving of the president were 32 to 39%, and those disapproving were 59 to 66%. Under the September 25, 2026 ratings of the Cook Political Report, which analyzes election races, 208 districts are on the side of the other party (the opposition party), 205 are on the side of the ruling party, and 22 are toss-ups that could go either way. A House majority requires 218 seats, so this is only a close race with the opposition slightly ahead, and the outcome is not settled.

Looking at these numbers, it is hard to say that the current administration enjoys the support of a majority of the public. And January 20, 2029 will come regardless of the election results, which is why there is no need to shrink back.

That does not mean you can relax. While you wait, the current rules still apply. Approval of labor certification or a petition does not by itself give you the right to stay in the United States. Since guidance USCIS issued in August 2026, an application can be denied without a request for additional documents if even one document is missing. So the documents and the dates, at least, must be handled with great care.

Conclusion

There are three things to do now. First, sit down with the employer, decide which position to apply for, and file the first step, the prevailing wage request. That is what moves up the day the labor certification application is filed, which is the day you get in line. Second, write on a calendar when your current status that lets you stay in the United States ends and by when an extension must be filed, and keep it from lapsing even for a single day. Third, gather documents in advance. The employee needs documents proving education and experience, and the employer needs materials showing its ability to pay the wage. When you search for them in a hurry later, one is always missing.

No one can promise approval. But the turn never comes for a person who is not in line. It is said that the darkest hour is just before dawn. Stay in line and hold on a little longer.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. How long does an employment-based green card take if I start now?

The second and third preferences, which go through labor certification via an employer, generally take more than two years. Based on Department of Labor postings, the prevailing wage determination takes about four months, recruitment at least a little over two months, and labor certification review an average of 336 days (August 2026), so just this far takes roughly a year and a half. After that, the petition and the time waiting for your turn are added.

Q. Can't I wait until policies ease before starting?

While you are waiting, you are not standing in line. The priority date that sets your place in line is the day the labor certification application is filed with the Department of Labor, so a person who files later stands that much further back. If you watch for a year and then start, at the current pace you will have to spend another year and a half from that point before labor certification comes.

Q. If the opposition party wins the midterm elections, will immigration policy change right away?

Not right away. The midterm elections choose Congress, and the person who directs USCIS and the Department of State is the president. However, January 20, 2029, the day the new president takes office, will come regardless of the election results.

Disclaimer: This column provides general information and is not legal advice for a particular case. Individual immigration matters should be discussed with a qualified immigration attorney.

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