ICE Workplace Raids, Phase 2, and the Reality of the Rural Economy
Milan, Missouri, is a small town of about 1,800 people. About half of its residents are Hispanic, running the town's restaurants, bakeries, and grocery stores, and working at local farms and factories. On February 24, 2026, ICE agents arrested three people in the town. The number three might not sound like much. But in a town of 1,800, the impact was significant. Victorino Martin-Chavez, one of those arrested, was his family's sole driver and breadwinner. His wife, who was pregnant with their fourth child, lost her ride to prenatal appointments. A local restaurant saw weekly sales drop from $7,000 to $4,000 following the raids. Other Hispanic-owned restaurants also saw sales fall by more than half. The owner of a bakery told her employees, “If ICE comes back, close the shop.” As one local activist put it, “There is no economic progress without people. This is a small, rural town with few resources.” What happened in Milan is just one example of a pattern repeating itself in rural America. If three arrests shook the town's economy, it's not hard to imagine what happens when hundreds disappear. More stories like these will emerge as workplace raids intensify.
From “Worst Criminal” to “Every Workplace”
“To fulfill the promise of mass deportations, we must shut down workplaces where undocumented immigrants are employed, close their bank accounts, and track down stolen Social Security numbers.” — Mass Deportation Coalition, April 1, 2026
The Trump administration's immigration crackdown is entering its second phase. The first phase was a so-called “worst-of-the-worst” strategy that prioritized immigrants with criminal records. However, pro-administration immigration groups have assessed that this approach has not achieved the promised scale of deportations. The Mass Deportation Coalition, on April 1, 2026, unveiled a new 21-item roadmap, calling for a full expansion of workplace raids.
이 로드맵의 핵심은 단속 대상의 확대입니다. 더 이상 범죄 기록이 있는 사람에 국한하지 않고, 고용주와 일반 근로자를 동시에 겨냥합니다. 세부 항목에는 작업장 단속 강화, 비자 초과 체류자 식별 및 추적, 불법 체류자의 은행 계좌 폐쇄(debanking), IRS를 통한 도용 사회보장번호 추적, 망명 제도의 실질적 제한 등이 포함됩니다. 연합은 여론조사를 인용하며 미국인 72%가 고용주 감사를, 71%가 위반 업체 처벌을 지지한다고 밝혔습니다. 이 로드맵은 트럼프 대통령에게 직접 전달될 예정입니다.
The noteworthy point is that this roadmap isn't just about increasing the scale of crackdowns, but about creating a structure that prevents immigrants from even participating in economic life in the U.S. It's a strategy to cut off the three pillars of life: jobs, bank accounts, and Social Security numbers. If this is realized, it will create an environment of so-called “self-deportation,” pressuring immigrants to leave on their own, even if they aren't directly caught in crackdowns.
Changes are already underway in the field. The number of Notices of Inspection issued by ICE in the first half of 2025 already exceeds ten times the total number from the previous year (approximately 230 cases). Through a bill signed in July 2025, ICE was allocated 10,000 new agents and a total of $170 billion for enforcement budgets. This represents the largest personnel expansion in ICE history, an increase of 120% (%) over the existing workforce. With increased personnel and funding, the prevailing outlook is that a full-scale expansion of workplace enforcement is only a matter of time.
Arrests of innocent people
“More than 7 in 10 detained people have no criminal record. — Cato Institute analysis
There is a figure that most clearly shows the change in the nature of ICE enforcement. The number of individuals detained by ICE without criminal records surged from 3,165 in February 2025 to 25,193 in January 2026. The American Immigration Council analyzed that the number of detainees without criminal records increased by approximately 2,450%during 2025. Overall, 73%of those newly taken into custody by ICE in fiscal year 2025 had no prior criminal convictions, and nearly half did not even face criminal charges. The rate of non-criminal arrests jumped from 6%in January 2025 to 41% in December of the same year. This indicates a shift in enforcement focus from “dangerous criminals” to “all immigration violators.” While it is true they are staying in the country by violating immigration laws, the large-scale crackdown on individuals with no criminal record, who support their families and contribute to the local economy, shows a fundamental change in the nature of the policy. An analysis by FactCheck.org also confirms that “as ICE arrests increased, so did the proportion of arrestees with no criminal record.”.
The methods of enforcement have also changed. In the past, ICE would single out specific targets for arrest, but now various tactics are being employed, such as “at-large” arrests, area patrols, workplace raids, re-arrests during immigration court appearances, and re-arrests during routine ICE check-ins. In Minnesota, the largest enforcement operation (Operation Metro Surge) ever, involving approximately 3,000 federal agents, took place in early 2026 and resulted in the arrest of about 3,000 people. During the operation, protests and clashes were frequent, and at least two civilians were fatally shot by federal agents. Looking at Minnesota as a whole, 4,030 people were arrested between December 2025 and mid-March 2026, of whom 2,532 (63%) had no criminal record.
The scale of detention facilities is also at an all-time high. The number of ICE detainees increased by 75%from approximately 40,000 in early 2025 to about 66,000 in December of the same year, reaching a record high. According to an analysis by the Cato Institute, only 5%of these individuals have been convicted of violent crimes. The remaining 95% are people with non-violent criminal records or no criminal records at all. According to a report by the American Immigration Council, amidst the surge in detention numbers, facility inspections actually decreased by 36.25% during 2025. In the same period, 32 individuals died in detention, the highest number since 2004 and approximately a threefold increase compared to the previous year. This is occurring while overcrowding in detention facilities, lack of access to medical care, and reduced external oversight are happening simultaneously.
The Moment the Village Stops
“Without people, there is no economic progress.” – Milanese activist in Missouri
What happened in Milan is a microcosm of how immigration crackdowns affect local economies. When Hispanic residents, who make up half the town's population, avoid going out or leave town, restaurant sales are cut in half, bakeries and grocery stores close, and there are no workers for the farms.
This isn't just a Milan story. Towns like Smithfield and Postville that have seen large-scale immigration raids have followed a similar trajectory. Immediately after the raids, the local economy shrinks, students disappear from schools, and the families left behind are plunged into economic hardship and psychological fear. According to analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), large-scale deportations could reduce GDP by as much as 7.4% by 2028. The American Immigration Council (AIC) estimates that labor shortages numbering in the millions will emerge in key industries such as construction, hospitality, and manufacturing. In agriculture, the increase in applications for H-2A temporary agricultural worker visas has significantly slowed, the construction industry faces a labor shortage of 500,000 workers, and hospitals in southern West Virginia have reported that foreign doctors and nurses are withdrawing their plans to work in the U.S. due to visa uncertainty. Agricultural groups appealed to Congress on April 2nd for immigration reform, arguing that American workers alone cannot meet demand. Even an administration lawyer acknowledged in federal court in Fresno in March that “there is a shortage of American workers.”.
There are no American workers to fill the void left by immigrant laborers. Although Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has set “100% American workforce” as a policy goal, the overwhelming response from the field is that there is no available talent pool to achieve this. Industries with a high proportion of immigrant workers—such as agriculture, construction, food processing, food service, and personal services—are experiencing a greater impact from labor shortages, with the costs passed on to local residents in the form of rising consumer prices and reduced services. Reports indicate that crops are rotting in fields in California due to a shortage of harvest labor, and landscaping companies on Long Island, New York, anticipate significant labor shortages this season. The Brookings Institution analyzes that net immigration is likely to be zero or negative in 2026. A decrease in immigrants leads to a reduction in the workforce, a contraction in consumer spending, and a slowdown in GDP growth. These three factors are not independent; they operate in a chain. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has also projected in previous analyses that a decline in immigration could reduce GDP by 0.7%. An economy functioning without immigrants might be possible as a political slogan, but no one in practice has yet found a way to make it work.
◆ The Realities Faced by Korean-Owned Businesses
“If ICE comes again, close the store.” — Milan Bakery Owner
In the Korean community, this issue is not someone else's problem. According to a UCLA study, 70 to 80%of nail businesses in the New York metropolitan area are Korean-owned. Industry insiders state that several Korean-owned nail salons in the New Jersey area have closed, and an increasing number of employees are refusing to come to work due to fear of crackdowns. In a September 2025 raid at the Hyundai Motor-LG Energy Solution battery plant in Georgia, approximately 475 migrant workers were arrested, most of whom were Korean. This incident escalated into a diplomatic issue involving direct intervention from the South Korean government. The arrested Korean workers testified about experiencing poor conditions in detention facilities, and some expressed reluctance to return to the United States even after their release. This incident received extensive media coverage from both Korean and American media outlets and also prompted President Lee Jae-myung to request a Korean professional-exclusive work visa bill (Partner with Korea Act) from the U.S. Congress.
In January 2025, the “sensitive locations” protection policy was abolished by executive order. Previously, enforcement actions near schools, hospitals, and places of worship were refrained from, but now all locations, including small businesses, are subject to enforcement. Korean-owned small service businesses such as nail salons, laundromats, and restaurants are directly in the impact zone of this change. In Marietta, Georgia, there were also reports of ICE raids on nail salons resulting in the arrest of 12 undocumented workers. The fear of raids is already in effect, even without them directly visiting businesses. The situation where employees refuse to come to work, customers decrease, and hiring becomes difficult threatens the very survival of businesses.
As an employer, you must be aware of your legal responsibilities. Fines for I-9 form (Employment Eligibility Verification) violations range from $288 to $2,861 per violation. If you knowingly hire an undocumented immigrant, the fines increase to between $716 and $28,619 per person. Even for a first offense, if you are found to have knowingly hired someone, the fine can jump up to $5,724 per person, and after three or more violations, it can reach up to $28,619, an almost five-fold increase. Separate fines of $590 to $4,730 per violation are added for document fraud.
Korean business owners should do three things right now. First, re-examine all employee I-9 forms and complete any missing information. Second, ensure that all hiring eligibility documents are thoroughly checked and kept for new hires. Third, prepare a response procedure in advance for ICE visits. It is illegal for ICE agents to search inside a business without a warrant. It is necessary to understand the difference between an administrative warrant and a judicial warrant and to educate employees on this in advance. Only a judicial warrant grants ICE the authority to search inside a business; an administrative warrant, issued by an immigration judge, does not provide legal grounds for entry into a building. Failing to know this distinction and opening the door versus confirming the type of warrant and responding legally will have entirely different outcomes. In an environment where enforcement is becoming increasingly stringent, having legal preparedness or not can determine the survival of a business. Restaurant owners in Milan, nail salon owners in Georgia, Korean self-employed business owners in New Jersey – regardless of location or industry, the reality they face is the same. Facing an inspection without preparation versus facing it with legal procedures in place can be the difference that determines the fate of a business.
Disclaimer: This column is for general information purposes only and is not legal advice for your specific case. You should always consult with an attorney who specializes in immigration law for your individual case.
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