‘From ‘mass deportations" to "deporting criminals," the policy temperature of political seasons
March 10, 2026, Doral, Florida. At the annual workshop for House Republicans, White House deputy press secretary James Blair's message was simple: say ‘deport criminal illegals’ instead of ‘mass deportation. It's a directive to stop saying a phrase that was a key part of the presidential campaign just a year ago. Rep. Lisa McClain, chair of the House Republican Conference, backed this up with comments to the same effect.
That same week, House Speaker Mike Johnson was more blunt: “There was a small problem among Hispanic and Latino voters, because some of the immigration enforcement was perceived as excessive. We're in course correction mode right now,” he said, adding that things would be different with a new secretary of Homeland Security. What we're witnessing is a country's immigration policy changing temperature with the electoral calendar. These comments are not just rhetoric; they are evidence that with less than eight months to go until the November 2026 midterm elections, the logic of political survival is reshaping the way immigration policy is articulated.
Political pressure in numbers
According to a joint Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll (Feb. 12-17, 2026; 2,589 adults; margin of error ±21 TP3T), 581 TP3T of Americans say President Trump's deportation policies have “gone too far,” up 81 TP3T points from 501 TP3T in October of last year. In the same survey, disapproval of ICE's enforcement tactics outnumbered approval by 621 TP3T to 311 TP3T, while approval of Trump's handling of immigration policy remained at 401 TP3T. In Fox News“ own poll (Jan. 23-26, 1,005 registered voters), 591 TP3T called ICE's actions ”too aggressive," up 101 TP3T points from July. Even among whites without a college degree, the increase is notable, up 141 TP3 points, and among independents, up 221 TP3 points. The fact that conservative-leaning outlets are seeing these results suggests that the shift is reaching deep into the Republican base.
It was specific events that changed the tide of public opinion. On January 7, 2026, U.S. citizen Renee Goode, 37, was shot and killed by ICE agent Jonathan Ross in Minneapolis. The day before, the agency had announced Operation Metro Surge, the largest immigration enforcement operation in history, deploying 2,000 agents to the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. On January 24 of the same month, Alex Pretty, 37, a nurse in the intensive care unit at the Veterans Affairs Hospital, was shot and killed by two CBP agents at an immigration enforcement protest. Pretty was a U.S. citizen. The government's initial account of the incident conflicted with subsequent video and reports, and the claim that Pretty actually pointed a gun at them remains strongly questioned. On February 3, Minnesota federal judge Jerry Blackwell stated that the ‘overwhelming majority“ of ICE cases before him involve people who are in the country legally. Court records and reports confirm that people who are in the country legally or have pending status applications, refugees, and even children have been detained in large numbers.
These aren't just numbers, they have the power to change voter behavior. According to Morris Predictive Insights (February 6-10, 1,500 likely voters), approximately 141 TP3T of the Trump coalition in 2024 have expressed intent to leave, with cost of living and economic issues topping the list at 491 TP3T, followed by ICE's urban deployment at 321 TP3T and immigration enforcement and deportation policies at 271 TP3T. This defector base is younger (median age 40 vs. 54) and more racially diverse (white non-Hispanic 541 TP3T vs. 761 TP3T) than the loyalist base. The poll numbers are changing the language of policy.
Warning lights in Texas
The March 2026 Texas primary sent a red flag to the Republican Party. More than 4.4 million votes were cast, the highest primary turnout in state history, according to an unofficial tally from the Texas Secretary of State's office. Democrats alone cast about 2.3 million votes, while Republicans cast just under 2.2 million. Voting in Latino-majority counties was up about 371 TP3T from the average of the last three elections. Along the U.S.-Mexico border, Starr County (971 TP3T Latino) saw a 671 TP3T spike in turnout and Hidalgo County (921 TP3T Latino) saw a 511 TP3T spike. Looking at Latino-majority counties as a whole, there was an increase of about 371 TP3T compared to the average of the last three elections.
651 TP3T of Latino voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, while 351 TP3T chose the Republican Party. In a UnidosUS survey of 200 likely Texas Hispanic primary voters (February 25-March 1), one-third said the Trump administration's immigration actions violate civil rights and put U.S. citizens at risk of detention and deportation, while another third said ICE is out of control and needs stronger oversight and major reform. Only 14% said they supported the administration's immigration enforcement and deportation policies. Immigration enforcement, along with cost of living and jobs concerns, were the top three factors that drove them to the polls.
These numbers are behind House Speaker Mike Johnson's public talk of ‘course correction. The nomination of Senator Markwayne Mullin as the new Secretary of Homeland Security, replacing Secretary Jeh Johnson, reads in the same vein.
Another force pushing back
The White House's messaging shift is not working for all conservatives. The Mass Deportation Coalition, which includes former Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner Mark Morgan, Blackwater founder Eric Prince, and conservative organizations such as the Heritage Foundation, has formed a lobbying group of immigration law experts, former senior officials, and law enforcement officers from the field. By April 1, they vowed to release a ‘menu’ of specific policy and operational plans to achieve at least 1 million internal ICE deportations by 2026. The ultimate goal is to surpass the scale of President Eisenhower's crackdowns in 2027 and 2028. They claim to want to make immigration enforcement ‘a real operation, not a show or a slogan.
Senator Mike Lee of Utah took to social media to say that “no one has ever told me that,” and that “if they did, I wouldn't follow through.” His communications director, Billy Gribbin, explained that “the Washington establishment wants the administration's most popular and important promise scrapped, so Senator Lee is shutting down their rumor mill.” For Senator Lee, mass deportations are a core campaign promise that cannot be abandoned, and the logic is that rhetorical retreat ahead of the midterm elections will eventually lead to policy retreat.
Even within its own camp, the White House is engaged in a tug-of-war between ‘electioneering‘ and ’sticking to principles. “No one is changing the administration's immigration enforcement agenda,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said, adding that “the president's top priority has always been the deportation of criminal undocumented immigrants who pose a threat to American society.” She also provided figures claiming that about 701 TP3T of those deported have criminal records. But the gap between the message delivered at the event and the official announcement is stark, and it's one of the clearest indications yet of the current divide within the Republican Party.
Déjà vu in history
It's a recurring pattern in American political history that immigration policy pendulum swings with the election cycle. In the 2006 midterm elections, the Bush administration pushed for comprehensive immigration reform legislation, but failed to reach an agreement when House Republicans insisted on increased enforcement. While fatigue over the Iraq War was a major factor, party divisions over immigration also contributed to the GOP losing 31 seats in the House and six in the Senate. It was clear then that immigration is a dual agenda that can both unite and divide voters.
In 2014, President Obama delayed the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DAPA) for undocumented parents until November 20, after the midterm elections. He had originally promised to announce it by the end of September, but he delayed it because of the impact it would have on the election. Despite harsh criticism from immigration groups, political calculation prevailed: the instinct to avoid controversy before an election is a bipartisan one.
When the first Trump administration highlighted the ‘caravan" and border crisis in the 2018 midterm elections, immigration was an agenda that rallied Republican supporters. But it also cost them 40 seats in the House of Representatives as suburban voters turned away. The same agenda is sometimes a weapon and sometimes a boomerang. Back then, the immigration hardline ignited enthusiasm in the base, but at the cost of losing centrist and suburban voters.
There is one variable that makes the situation in 2026 different from the past. With real-time coverage of U.S. citizens dying and legal residents being detained during enforcement, there is a growing realization that immigration enforcement is no longer ‘just about illegals.
Closing remarks
What does this political dynamic mean for the Korean immigrant community? In the short term, the intensity of enforcement is likely to be adjusted. The White House's shift to focus on ‘deporting criminals‘ reads as a sign that the pressure on legal residents without criminal records may ease somewhat. Indeed, with the White House and DHS claiming that 70% of deportees are criminal record holders, there is, at least officially, a shift toward emphasizing ‘selective enforcement" over "indiscriminate enforcement. However, there is still room for the policy to swing back if hardliners such as the mass deportation coalition push back. It's also worth noting that a change in messaging doesn't immediately translate into a change in enforcement on the ground.
The most realistic response immigrants can take in this situation is to keep their legal status as strong as possible. If you have a visa renewal or adjustment of status application coming up, do it as soon as possible and make sure you have all of your documents in order, regardless of which way the political winds are blowing. Even if you're a legal resident with no criminal record, a suspended driver's license or unpaid fines for minor traffic violations can be problematic during enforcement, so make sure you're up to speed on all your legal obligations. Political seasons change, but an individual's record before the law is not seasonal.
Disclaimer: This column is for general information purposes only and is not legal advice for your specific case. You should always consult with an attorney who specializes in immigration law for your individual case.
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