Visa on the scales
H-1B Weighted Lottery Implementation and FY2027 Registration Open, What Korean-American Applicants Need to Know
On February 27, 2026, the H-1B visa lottery changed fundamentally. The long-standing random draw, or ‘lottery,’ has been replaced by a new selection system that is weighted by wage level. While the hundreds of thousands of people competing for the 85,000 H-1B visas available each year hasn't changed, the principle that determines who gets more chances has changed: even if you put your name in the same lottery box, you'll get more names of people with higher wage offers.
In less than a week, the fiscal year 2027 (FY2027) H-1B initial filing period opens March 4-19. Given that this cycle is the first test of the weighted lottery system, the results could shape the direction of future H-1B policy discussions. For international students, OPT workers, and the companies that hire them, this change isn't an abstract policy discussion; it's a reality that starts next week. We break down what's changed and what you need to do to prepare.
The rules of the game change, from random to weighted
The final rule, published by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the Federal Register on December 29, 2025, redesigned the fundamental principles of the H-1B lottery. Under the old system, all registrants had an equal chance of winning the lottery. Whether you were a highly paid engineer at a large company or a new employee just hired by a small business, you were all equal in the lottery box. The new rule dismantles this equality. The number of times an enrollee is entered into the lottery depends on the prevailing wage level, as measured by the Department of Labor's (DOL) Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS).
Specifically, an enrollment from an employer offering an annual salary equivalent to Level IV of the prevailing wage will be entered into the lottery pool four times. Level III will get three entries, Level II will get two entries, and the lowest Level I will only get one entry. It's the same lottery, but higher wage registrants will have more entries. The annual H-1B cap remains the same: 65,000 general and an additional 20,000 for U.S.-based master's or higher degree holders, for a total of 85,000. What's different is who those 85,000 are likely to go to.
The four tiers of the prevailing wage are calculated differently for each occupation and region. Tier 1 corresponds to about the 17th percentile of the wage distribution for the occupation, tier 2 to the 34th, tier 3 to the 50th (median), and tier 4 to the 67th percentile. The same software engineer will earn a different living wage in New York than in Texas, and even in the same city, different occupations will have different step thresholds.
The reality of the new lottery when the numbers speak
To understand the real impact of the new rule, you need to look at the numbers. An analysis released in February 2026 by the Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School shows the magnitude of the change vividly. Under the old random lottery, a prevailing wage Tier 1 enrollee had about a 27.1 percent chance of being selected; under the new weighting scheme, that probability plummets to about 2.5 percent. That's a drop of about one in 10. For workers early in their careers, that's a significant blow, both numerically and emotionally.
DHS's own estimates are in the same direction, projecting the probability of selection for enrollees in tier 4 at about 61 percent, tier 3 at about 46 percent, tier 2 at about 31 percent, and tier 1 at about 15 percent. While the numerical differences between the Wharton model and the DHS estimates are due to different assumptions about the assumptions about the overall enrollment size and distribution across wage tiers, the core message is consistent: the probability of selection drops sharply at lower wage tiers.
Looking at H-1B application data from FY2020 through FY2024, about 28 percent of the total was concentrated in Tier 1, 55 percent in Tier 2, with only 12 percent in Tier 3 and 5 percent in Tier 4. That means 83 percent of applicants were clustered in tiers 1 and 2. Under the new rules, this majority will see their chances of being selected drop dramatically. According to Wharton's analysis, the percentage of selected registrants in Tier 1 will drop from 27 percent to 14 percent, and the percentage in Tier 4 will increase from 15.5 percent to about 26 percent. It's a structural shift that retains the appearance of a lottery but tilts the distribution of outcomes toward higher wages.
It's worth noting that if the actual wage offered is higher than the prevailing wage for the occupation and region, it can be recognized as a higher tier in the lottery weighting calculation. For example, if an occupation is tier 2 on the Labor Condition Application (LCA), but the actual salary offered by the employer is at or above the tier 3 prevailing wage for the same occupation and region, it will be weighted at tier 3 (entry 3) in the lottery. This rule leaves room for employers to improve their odds of selection based on their wage strategy. However, it is important to note that the employer must actually be willing and able to pay that level of wage, and that misrepresenting wages is a violation of immigration law that can have serious consequences.
What it means for Korean American applicants
Many Korean-American H-1B applicants are directly affected by this change. Many Korean applicants take the Optional Practical Training (OPT) pathway to H-1B after graduating from a U.S. college or university, and their first job out of school typically pays between one and two prevailing wage levels. Even for professionals such as software engineers, accountants, and business analysts, a salary of step 1-2 is typical at the beginning of their careers. For them, the new lottery rules mean a perceptible drop in their odds of selection. The situation will change as they progress in their careers and reach the third or fourth tier of wages, but the H-1B lottery is for visas needed early in their careers, and it's not realistic to expect to be in a high wage tier at that point.
Another variable that cannot be overlooked is the issue of the $100,000 H-1B fee, introduced by presidential proclamation in September 2025, which applies to certain new petitions for H-1B visas from abroad and is currently the subject of three federal lawsuits. California v. Noem, a lawsuit filed jointly by 20 states, Global Nurse Force v. Trump, and an appeal being heard on an expedited basis by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. As of February 2026, no court has issued a preliminary injunction to stop the fee. Meanwhile, the call for an exemption is growing, especially from the medical community. A bipartisan letter co-signed by 100 members of Congress has been sent to DHS, and the American Medical Association (AMA), as well as 40 other national healthcare organizations, support an exemption for healthcare employers. As of FY 2024, nearly 17,000 H-1B petitions have been approved in the healthcare sector.
For employers, the new rule requires a strategic recalculation. Increasing the salary offered to applicants to move them into the higher pay tiers will increase their chances of being selected, but it will also increase their labor costs. For small businesses and startups in particular, it is difficult to match the same wage levels as larger companies. As a result, the rule has the potential to reinforce a system that favors large, well-capitalized companies and disadvantages smaller employers. If a Korean-American accounting firm in Flushing or Fort Lee wants to hire a Korean-speaking accountant on an H-1B, they are at a double disadvantage: they cannot compete with the wages offered by larger firms, and their lottery weight is lowered.
Practical checks before opening enrollment
With just a few days left until registration opens on March 4, it's important to know what you can and can't prepare for. While you can't change the weighting itself, you can prevent mistakes or omissions during the registration process.
The first thing you need to determine is which prevailing wage tier you fall into. Knowing in advance what tier your employer's salary offer falls into is fundamental preparation. As we've seen, it makes strategic sense to have an honest conversation with your employer about your salary level, as your actual offer may be weighted more heavily in the lottery if you're in a higher tier.
If you have a master's or higher degree, you'll still get first dibs on the additional 20,000 master's quota.
The registration period runs from March 4 at noon ET to March 19 at noon ET, and selection notifications will be made through the USCIS online account by March 31. Registration can only be done by employers or their representatives, not by applicants themselves. Employers are responsible for the $215 per registration fee for new registrations.
Closing remarks
The implementation of the weighted lottery has changed the nature of the competition for H-1B visas, moving from the ‘realm of luck‘ of the random lottery to the "realm of market assessment" of wage levels. To be sure, the door has narrowed for many applicants in the first and second tier wage brackets, but narrower doesn't mean closed. DHS estimates put the probability of selection for first-tier registrants at about 15 percent, not zero. It's realistic to consider alternatives in advance in case you're not selected. Rather than betting everything on a single H-1B, a parallel approach with multiple pathways is a safer bet. It makes sense to maximize the duration of your OPT, check the availability of 24-month OPT extensions for STEM majors, explore other work visa pathways such as O-1 or L-1 visas, and, in the long run, expand your horizons to green card categories that allow you to proceed without an employer sponsor, such as EB-2 NIW.
The March 4 registration opening is just around the corner. The most concrete action you can take now is to start communicating with your employers, checking the prevailing wage tiers, and making sure you have your registration fees and paperwork ready. The new rule has been met with both criticism that it puts too much weight on a single criterion - wages - and advocacy that it's a necessary step for the health of the U.S. labor market. Regardless of which side is right, now that the rule is in place, the first step is to find your best position within it. There will be uncertainty as the system settles in, but it's possible to ramp up your preparations in the midst of uncertainty. In the end, the weight of your visa on the scales will be a combination of your own skills and the judgment of your employer.
Disclaimer: This column is for general information purposes only and is not legal advice for your specific case. You should always consult with an attorney who specializes in immigration law for your individual case.
Law Offices of Jin Dong Cho
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